ДИНАМИКА ВЫСОТЫ ВОЛН В БУДУЩЕМ В КАЗАХСТАНСКОЙ ЧАСТИ КАСПИЙСКОГО МОРЯ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2025-119-4-70-83Ключевые слова:
Каспийское море, волна, высота волны, карты зонированияАннотация
Разработка нефтяных и газовых месторождений в Каспийском регионе, круглогодичное судоходство в море и необходимость сохранения биоразнообразия привели к росту интереса к комплексным исследованиям Каспийского моря, в том числе к изучению ветровых возмущений. Целью данного исследования является изучение процесса образования ветровых волн в море и расчет их пространственных и временных изменений в будущем на основе численного моделирования с использованием спектрально-волновой модели SWAN. Расчеты прогноза высоты волн на период до 2050 года с использованием данных климатической модели из набора данных NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 для двух сценариев выбросов парниковых газов показали, что до 2050 года максимальная высота волн может варьироваться от 1.1 м до 4.0 м при SSP1-2.6 с максимальными значениями в 2023, 2029, 2042 годах; от 1.3 м до 4.1 м при SSP5-8.5 с максимальными значениями в 2029, 2033, 2050 годах. В казахстанской части моря в будущем (в период 2022…2050 гг.) возможны значительные и сильные волны. Поскольку к 2050 году высота волн в средней части Каспийского моря может достигать 6 м, необходимо построить защитные дамбы в районах нефтяных месторождений и населенных пунктов, а также укрепить и реконструировать ранее построенные.
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