COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES TO SCENARIO MODELLING OF WATER RESOURCES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2026-123-3-304-318Keywords:
scenario analysis, river basin modelling, water security, water resources managementAbstract
Modern water resources management is increasingly challenged by rising water demand and transboundary constraints, with water crises in river basins becoming increasingly systemic in nature. Alongside growing pressures on water resources, there is an increasing need for scientifically robust methods of forecasting and risk assessment, making the development and application of contemporary water management models particularly relevant.
The aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of existing approaches to scenario modelling of water resources, including approaches focused on the development and analysis of alternative scenarios for the evolution of water management systems based on model simulations representing different combinations of climatic, socio-economic and management factors.
The article reviews contemporary water resources modelling methods used to analyse scenarios of water crisis development in river basins. Hydrological, integrated, system dynamics and stochastic models are considered, together with approaches to scenario development that account for climatic, anthropogenic and management factors. The advantages and limitations of the different methods are comparatively analysed in terms of their suitability for assessing water security risks and the resilience of water supply systems.
Particular attention is given to the methodological aspects of scenario modelling that allow uncertainty in natural and socio-economic factors to be considered. Scenario analysis is shown to be a key tool for supporting management decisions under conditions of high uncertainty. The findings provide a methodological basis for further research aimed at analysing the development of water crises and planning sustainable water use in large river basins.
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