AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN KYZYLORDA REGION OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE PERIOD 1961...2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-65-78Keywords:
air temperature, climate change, Sen’s criterion, Mann–Kendall non-parametric testAbstract
The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of air temperature, one of the most obvious indicators of climate change, and to determine the long-term trends of air temperature change in Kyzylorda region. Kyzylorda region is located in the south-west of Kazakhstan, is characterized by arid climate and belongs to the zone of ecological disaster. In this paper, the authors studied the changes in air temperature in the period from 1961 to 2020 based on the nonparametric statistical method of Mann-Kendall. The Mann-Kendall method is used to determine whether there is a monotonic trend in the studied data. The Mann-Kendall test is aimed at increasing the accuracy of the result of time series estimation and allows to determine the presence of a trend. The obtained results are characterized by a significant change in temperature in time series of Kyzylorda region. It is noted that for the selected period, to assess changes in the criterion Sen, the average annual temperature changes increased by 0.02...0.05°C. Seasonal trends showed an increase in average temperatures during the year, and the summer months significantly contributed to the warming observed in Kyzylorda region. The obtained data can serve as a basis for assessing both regional climate change and for assessing the ecological state, as meteorological parameters, namely air temperature is one of the important indicators in the study of atmospheric air pollution in Kyzylorda region.
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