PHYSICAL PATTERNS IN DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES AND LONG-TERM AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS BY THE EXAMPLE OF SPRING WHEAT IN NORTHERN KAZAKHSTAN
Abstract
Article presents analysis of some methodological approaches to make long-term agrometeorological forecasts based on the patterns of the dynamics of atmospheric processes in Northern Kazakhstan and West Siberia which form the weather in these regions. Such patterns were revealed by Russian and Kazakhstan scientists in the 80s of the last century. Authors of the articles continued researches in this direction and specified the patterns of weather dynamics over Northern Kazakhstan. First of all it refers to dynamics of atmospheric precipitation in cold and warm months with account for periodicity of solar activity fluctuations during 1961…2001. Authors developed weather scenarios which allow assessing the most probable productivity of spring wheat and phyto-sanitary conditions of the agricultural lands before sowing period. The researches were implemented within the framework of partner project K-444p, 2001…2004 from the International Scientific and Technology Center (ISTC).
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