USING HYDROLOGICAL MODEL HBV FOR FORECASTING RIVER DISCHARGE ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE LATERAL WATER FLOW TO THE SHULBI RESERVOIR
Keywords:
hydrological modelling, conceptual model HBV, calibration, spring flood, short-term runoff forecast, Shulbi reservoirAbstract
The article shows short-term runoff forecasting with using hydrological model HBV on the example of the lateral water flow to the Shulbi reservoir that methods of measurements and forecasting water inflow, which developed in last century are outdated in scientifically and methodically due to changes in input parameters taking into account climate change. The article provides a brief description of the model, hydrometeorological input data and digital elevation model data, also given information about glacial components and their processing on the ArcGIS information platform. For calculating of model’s efficiency, used the NashSutcliffe Efficiency. The model was calibrated for the period 1978…2018 and were selected the periods with the best results of calibrating for runoff of the Oba and Ulbi rivers, which make up the total literal tributary to the Shulbi reservoir. The calibration results of the selection of the best parameters the efficiency of the models amounted 0.908…0.922, respectively. The results of a short-term runoff forecast, with using calibration parameters, for a lead time of 1 day, 3 and 7 days, showed good indicators of forecasting quality. The forecast predictability for 1 day was 81 %, 3 day – 80 %, 7 day – 77 %. Preparation of a short term forecast of runoff of the Oba and Ulbi rivers using numerical forecasting methods is an important factor in improving the management
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