ANALYSIS OF GLACIER AND MORAINE LAKE AREA CHANGES IN THE TURGEN RIVER BASIN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2025-119-4-47-57Keywords:
climate change, glacier area, moraine lakes, remote sensingAbstract
This scientific paper examines the changes occurring in glacier zones and moraine lakes located in the Turgen River basin using remote sensing (RS) methods. Analysis of satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope) from 1999 to 2024 revealed a significant reduction in glacier cover as well as the dynamics of moraine lake formation. Empirical data show that the glacier area in the Turgen basin has decreased by 50.3 %, from 34.8 km² in 1955 to 17.3 km² in 2024. In addition, a noticeable increase in the area of moraine lakes has been observed, which contributes to a heightened risk of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). To assess the impact of climatic variables, data from the Assy meteorological station were used, showing a trend of increasing average annual temperature combined with a decrease in precipitation. The results of this study highlight the need for continuous monitoring of glaciers and moraine lakes, as well as the development of strategies aimed at reducing the risks associated with their transformation.
References
Xu M., Wang P., Wu H., Kang S. (2023). Different patterns of changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff over the Tarim Basin, Central Asia. Hydrological Processes, 37(10), e14997. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14997
Denzinger F., Machgut, H., Barandun M., Berthier E., Girod L., Kronenberg M., Usubaliev R., Hoelzle, M. (2021). Geodetic mass balance of Abramov Glacier from 1975 to 2015. Journal of Glaciology, 67(262), 331-342. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.108
Barandun M., Fiddes J., Scherler M., Mathys T., Saks T., Petrakov D., Hoelzle M. (2020). The state and future of the cryosphere in Central Asia. Water Security, 11, 100072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.10007
Batbaatar J., Gillespie A. R., Koppes M., Clark D. H., Chadwick O. A., Fink D., Matmon A., Rupper S. (2021). Glacier development in continental climate regions of central Asia. https://doi.org/10.1130/2020.2548(07)
Sorg A., Bolch T., Stoffel M., Solomina O., Beniston M. (2012). Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia). Nature Climate Change, 2(10), 725-731. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1592
Zhang Q., Chen Y., Li Z., Xiang Y., Li Y., Sun C. (2022). Recent changes in glaciers in the northern tien Shan, central Asia. Remote Sensing, 14(12), 2878. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14122878
Попов Н. В., Ранова С. У., Камалбекова А. Н., Алдаберген Ұ. Р. Количественная оценка гляциальной селевой опасности в Иле Алатау// География и водные ресурсы. – 2024. - № (4). – С. 115-129.
Татькова М. Е., Северский И. В., Усманова З. С., Капица В. П. Тестирование возможностей методики оперативного мониторинга горно-ледниковых систем // География и водные ресурсы. – 2024. - №(3). – С. 68-83.
Shan Z., Li Z., Dong X. (2021). Impact of glacier changes in the Himalayan Plateau disaster. Ecological Informatics, 63, 101316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101316
Kumar V., Mehta M., Shukla T. (2021). Spatially resolved estimates of glacial retreat and lake changes from Gepang Gath Glacier, Chandra Basin, Western Himalaya, India. Journal of the Geological Society of India, 97(5), 520-526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-021-1718-y
Medeu A. R., Popov N. V., Blagovechshenskiy V. P., Askarova M. A., Medeu A. A., Ranova S. U., Kamalbekova A., Bolch T. (2022). Moraine-dammed glacial lakes and threat of glacial debris flows in South-East Kazakhstan. Earth-Science Reviews, 229, 103999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103999
Bolch,T., Pieczonka T., Benn D. I. (2011). Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery. The Cryosphere, 5(2), 349-358. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-349-2011
Kääb A., Berthier E., Nuth C., Gardelle J., Arnaud Y. (2012). Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature, 488(7412), 495-498. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11324
Brun F., Wagnon P., Berthier E., Jomelli V., Maharjan S. B., Shrestha F., Kraaijenbrink P. D. A. (2019). Heterogeneous influence of glacier morphology on the mass balance variability in High Mountain Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 124(6), 1331-1345. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004838
Paul F., Kääb A., Maisch M., Kellenberger T., Haeberli W. (2002). The new remote-sensing-derived Swiss glacier inventory: I. Methods. Annals of Glaciology, 34, 355-361. https://doi:10.3189/172756402781817941
Paul F., Barrand N. E., Baumann S., Berthier E., Bolch T., Casey K., Joshi S.P., Konovalov V., Winsvold S. (2013). On the accuracy of glacier outlines derived from remote-sensing data. Annals of Glaciology, 54(63), 171-182. https://doi:10.3189/2013AoG63A296
Yue H., Li Y., Qian J., Liu Y. (2020). A new accuracy evaluation method for water body extraction. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 41(19), 7311-7342. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2020.1755740
Compagno L., Huss M., Zekollari H., Miles E. S., Farinotti D. (2022). Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia's ice-dammed lakes and associated risk. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1), 191. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00520-8
Lafon T., Dadson S., Buys G., Prudhomme C. (2013). Bias correction of daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model: a comparison of methods. International journal of climatology, 33(6), 1367-1381. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3518
Mussina A., Abdullayeva A., Barandun M., Cicoira A., Tursyngali M. (2024). Assessment of the current state and temporal changes of glacial-moraine lakes in the Central and Eastern part of the northern slope of the Ile Alatau, Kazakhstan. Journal of Water and Land Development. https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2024.151786
Вилесов Е. Н. Изменение размеров и состояния ледников Казахстана за 60 лет (1955–2015 гг.) // Лёд и Снег. – 2018. - №58(2). -С. 159-170. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2018-2-159-170
Merekeyev А.А., Iskaliyeva G.M., Gaipova A.B., Amangeldi A.A, Sagat M.S., Sydyk N.K. (2025). Methods of monitoring moraine lakes in Central Asia under climate change. Izdenister natigeler, 2 (106)), 469-480.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Әлима Амангелді, Гульнара Искалиева, Айбек Мерекеев , Мәдина Сағат

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.




