IMPROVEMENT OF METHODS FORECASTING THE TIMING FOR OF ICE PHENOMENA ON THE SYRDARYA RIVER UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Abstract

The paper presents the results of updating the methods for forecasting the dates of ice break-up, the occurrence of the first ice phenomena, and the establishment of ice cover on the Syrdarya River within Kazakhstan, obtained by the method of regression analysis and their testing. The greatest practical importance is represented by forecasts of the dates of ice formation and break-up, which are in demand among a wide range of consumers. Also, forecasting the dates of establishment and break-up of ice cover on the Syrdarya River makes it possible to promptly regulate releases from the Shardara Reservoir and thereby rationally manage the water resources of the region. Such forecasts are of particular relevance for the sections near the settlement of Tasbuget and the town of Kazalinsk, located downstream of the reservoir. Based on the analysis of hydrometeorological data of the Syrdarya River, forecasting of the dates of ice break-up and the beginning of ice phenomena was carried out. It was established that the use of the predictor “date of maximum temperature transition through 0 °C ensures high accuracy of forecasts (an error of 2...4 days), and for the first ice phenomena almost complete coincidence with actual data was noted, allowing the achievement of the required lead time (8...12 days), which increases their practical significance for the hydrological forecasting service.